Posts Tagged ‘proposition 03’

The Met Office speaks

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

Here is a possible source for some of Jo Steele’s comments in the Metro.

This gives us another, clearer formulation for Proposition 03:

The decade 2000–2009 has been warmer, on average, than any other decade in the previous 150 years;

as well as some other statements which might bear investigation.

Propositions 03, 04, 05: Hot decade

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

Today’s Metro article “China lambasts US and EU emission pledges” by Jo Steele contains a barrage of claims:

Meanwhile, the Noughties have been the warmest decade on record and this year has been one of the five hottest, weather experts warned.

While 1998 remains the hottest single year since records began in 1850, the last ten years have been the warmest, the Met Office revealed.

Wow. It ends with what looks like a repeat of (false) Proposition 02, but the others can stand a bit of scrutiny.

Proposition 03:

The Noughties have been the warmest decade on record

Proposition 04:

This year [2009] has been one of the five hottest [years on record]

Proposition 05:

1998 remains the hottest single year since records began

Methodology:

Well, propositions 04 and 05 seem fairly straightforward – top 1 and top 5s to go with the top 10 analysis already done. A bit of Perl hacking should get results for those today, though since we’re still in 2009 the final result will have to wait until January. Proposition 03 will take a bit more work, but not much – do we consider rolling decades or bucket the temperature record by (year/10)? Rolling decades is probably the more general version, but both are interesting tests to run.

So, time to get cracking!